Seven Risky Assumptions

Once I had an employer who based product decisions on assumptions about what "the man" might want or do. Rather than basing new initiatives on untested assumptions about a mythical person, formulate hypotheses, and prove or disprove them, says Michael May in "Issues for Success in Our Decade I," a recent webinar.

To test hypotheses about new initiatives, research your market. Speak with customers and prospects, former customers, industry experts, and even competitors. Avoid making the following risky assumptions:

1. We know our customers and market and don't have to assess them. However, if your competitors research customers, the market, and your company, they will be armed with current information and insights that you lack.

2. Our product is so easy to use that a child can operate it. Test whether your target market can see and understand the instructions, find and use the buttons, and make your product work. Navigating devices, such as ebooks, is challenging.

3. This product is a winner because it is technologically superior. A 3D TV provides a richer viewing experience than HD TV, but 3D TV is slow to catch on. The sets are costly, and users need special glasses. Make sure that your technologically superior products are also affordable and user-friendly.

4. People will never risk putting their data on someone else's computers. Many assumed that businesses would not entrust their data to "cloud computing" companies. When you learn about new opportunities, look for ways to participate by solving security and other problems, rather than dismissing the technology.

5. This platform will never become obsolete. Millennials (born 1982-2001) are cancelling cable TV and viewing TV programs on their PCs. Substitutes are available for everything, including gasoline, film, and printed books. To keep up with change, you must have new offerings in your pipeline.

6. This service won't take off. People assumed that the lack of payment mechanisms for online purchases would sink eCommerce businesses. As usual, innovators, like PayPal, succeeded by finding solutions to challenging problems.

7. If a little is good, a lot is better. Daily email pitches from vendors, professional services firms, and retailers annoy recipients. Ask recipients how often they want to hear from you before blitzing them with ads and deals.

Up-to-date market research will help you to stay ahead of competitors. We can help you formulate and test hypotheses about your customers and your market niche. Then, you can successfully respond to changes in customers, technology, and business processes.

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